Is FaceBook Doomed?
Everything Facebook has going for it today maybe its kiss of death tomorrow.
Published:January, 2006
To date, the exclusivity of being “just for people with .edu addresses” has been the major lure of Facebook (www.Facebook.com). But youth is fickle. And FaceBook has become second nature to college kids all over the country. “To facebook” is a verb, just like goggle before it. And, on many campuses it’s way more popular than wine or beer.
Most of the kids I know use Facebook to connect with their current friends, keep in touch with old friends, and on occasion, get introduced to someone new. But they agree it’s been life changing. Most will swear that they’re never giving up their Facebook. Never. No matter what. When I asked them to consider that Facebook might fade into oblivion, replaced by the next new thing they passionately reply that they can’t fathom it.
But, here are 7 good reasons to expect that Facebook’s rock star status might fade.
1. Too many people over 30 are talking about it.
Every newspaper in America has reported on Facebook. Every TV anchor has let a virtual tour or talked with an expert. Using Google News I track at least 2 stories on most days that address the Facebook phenomena (and there used to be more.) When adults find out about a place - be it virtual or not — it’s time to find a new place.
2. There’s a high school version now.
When the next generation (even if they’re only a few years younger) starts encroaching on your space; it’s also time to fine new pastures. Facebook is no longer something you have to wait for college to use; today it’s bifurcated into a new version for high schoolers and the classic for college kids.
3. Guidance counselors, teachers and admissions officers are getting hip to Facebook. (They have the requisite .edu address to allow them to register at the site.)
If you don’t want your child to post those Britaney-look alike photos on their site, or post photos of their classmates chugging beers all you need to do is tell them that you read somewhere that that guidance counselors, admissions counselors, and teachers are quickly learning how to browse for kid’s profiles to see what they’re “really” like.
4. Future employers look at it.
This is a bit harder for them to do because prospective employers do not, as a rule, have .edu addresses. Still, many use their alumnae addresses and the custom of googling to get the skinny on a candidate makes sense.
5. Cyberhangouts may turn out to be like bars.
Many of the early social networking websites like Friendster, Tribe still exist but have been superseded by facebook.com. Instant Messenger is still used but less mission critical once you’re facebooked. And there are others in the wings looking to supersede Facebook as I write this. Facebook (and this applies to Myspace.com as well) may be superseded. If kids, not know for their longtime loyalty find out there’s a cooler place to be, they’ll be there. Cyberhopping my replace barhopping.
6. The Internet has no classics.
Moby Dick, War and Peace — now those were classics. On the web, you’re considered a classic if you made it through the first two years.
7. Exclusivity is what made Facebook feel great.
Facebook is like the restricted country club. You can’t get in without the right address! It’s this type of exclusivity that makes being a Facebook member so much fun. College has an air of exclusivity and when a “closed club” gets infiltrated we’re off to another hangout.
Now don’t get me wrong. Facebook is still at the top of the game. It’s got 5M+ registered users and on the colleges where it has a presence, 80% of them are users. No campus is going to ever go back to using a bound-book Facebook. And most are not ambitious enough to move their friends, email and photos with them. Inertia may be Facebook’s best friend.